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Tag:Derrick Ward
Posted on: September 10, 2009 5:41 am
 

The Royalty of Roto 2009 Fantasy Football Ranks

I anticipated on getting these out position-by-position, but with other drafts and preparing other content, this is all of it. Included below are the quarterback rankings and notes from the previous post.

As noted before, a + indicates that a player is both preferred and anticipated to be a good value for his current draft position, and coversely so with a - sign.

Quarterback

  1. Drew Brees (+)
  2. Tom Brady (+)
  3. Peyton Manning
  4. Aaron Rodgers (+)
  5. Tony Romo
  6. Donovan McNabb
  7. Kurt Warner
  8. Matt Schaub (+)
  9. Philip Rivers
  10. Matt Ryan (+)
  11. Carson Palmer
  12. David Garrard (+)
  13. Ben Roethlisberger
  14. Jay Cutler
  15. Joe Flacco
  16. Matt Hasselback
  17. Matt Cassel
  18. Trent Edwards (Last of good No. 2’s – GET BACKUP BEFORE HERE)
  19. Brett Favre
  20. Shaun Hill
  21. Jason Campbell

  Notes:

  • Why 21? Well first of all I'm assuming a size of 12 owners in a league (and have always felt 10 is too few). Personally, I feel like Trent Edwards is the end of the last tier of backup quarterbacks I would prefer to own, but anything after these 21 certainly I won't own on any team of that many owners or fewer.
  • You're not going to find me taking Drew Brees or Tom Brady until about 18-20 players go off the board, and I don't think you should either. The "Fantastic Four" at wide receiver this year and a group of about a dozen running backs should go first before you reach for either of the gunslingers. I landed Brady with the 25th overall pick, or the first pick of the third round in one of my leagues, and if you get him there it's great value.
  • I'd say the top nine on my rankings, and throw in Cutler or maybe Palmer, are going in the early-to-mid rounds, and then there's a pretty steep drop off while teams establish depth. Pairing a couple of the guys that come after Rivers, who I believe to be overrated by some rankings this year, isn't a bad idea either.

Running Back

  1. Adrian Peterson
  2. Maurice-Jones Drew
  3. Matt Forte
  4. LaDanian Tomlinson (+)
  5. Chris Johnson
  6. Steven Jackson
  7. Michael Turner
  8. Steve Slaton (+)
  9. DeAngelo Williams
  10. Frank Gore
  11. Brandon Jacobs
  12. Clinton Portis
  13. Brian Westbrook
  14. Marion Barber III
  15. Pierre Thomas (+)
  16. Kevin Smith (+)
  17. Ryan Grant (+)
  18. Ronnie Brown (+)
  19. Darren McFadden
  20. Marshawn Lynch
  21. Ray Rice (+)
  22. Willie Parker (+)
  23. Derrick Ward  
  24. Thomas Jones
  25. Cedric Benson
  26. Jonathan Stewart
  27. Ahmad Bradshaw (+)
  28. Knowshon Moreno
  29. Chris Wells (+)
  30. Joseph Addai
  31. Donald Brown (+)
  32. Larry Johnson
  33. Reggie Bush
  34. Felix Jones
  35. Fred Jackson
  36. LenDale White
  37. Julius Jones
  38. Laurence Maroney
  39. Jamal Lewis
  40. LeSean McCoy (+)
  41. Fred Taylor
  42. Darren Sproles
  43. Chester Taylor
  44. Cadillac Williams
  45. Willis McGahee (-)
  46. Sammy Morris
  47. Rashard Mendenhall
  48. Shonn Greene
  49. Ricky Williams
  50. Leon Washington

  Notes:

  • These rankings have seen several revisions before now throughout training camp and the pre-season. Recent risers include Willie Parker, and although he never rose in my rankings already being ranked fairly high, Ray Rice has picked up a good deal of hype. The big drop has been Derrick Ward, the unfortunate result of the three-headed "monster" Coach Morris plans on using in Tampa Bay.
  • DeAngelo Williams is the end of the sure things at the running back position. I'm taking a wide receiver at this point in drafts at No. 10 overall. In 10-team leagues, this means you might have the option of going with a one-two of Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, or pairing one of the two with Frank Gore. Personally I'm not a Gore fan this year, so I would hope one of the top nine drop. In a 12-team league you're not so lucky. Therefore, I'm convinced that anything but the No. 10-12 slots are fine to draft in this year in 12-team leagues.
  • In 12-team leagues, someone is going to be starting those 20-24 guys as their No. 2 back, but if I'm not stacked at WR or have a top option at QB, my strong No. 2's stop at No. 17 with Ryan Grant. Sure, every player has some questions, but some more than others after that point. If not, I want to pair two players in that No. 18-25 range as my second and third running backs.

 

Wide Receiver

  1. Larry Fitzgerald
  2. Calvin Johnson (+)
  3. Andre Johnson (+)
  4. Randy Moss
  5. Greg Jennings
  6. Anquan Boldin (+)
  7. Steve Smith
  8. Reggie Wayne
  9. Roddy White
  10. Marques Colston (+)
  11. Brandon Marshall (+)
  12. Dwayne Bowe
  13. Wes Welker
  14. Chad OchoCinco (+)
  15. Braylon Edwards
  16. Terrell Owens
  17. Vincent Jackson (++)
  18. Bernard Berrian
  19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
  20. Roy Williams
  21. Lee Evans
  22. DeSean Jackson
  23. Eddie Royal
  24. Antonio Bryant
  25. Santana Moss
  26. Anthony Gonzalez (+)
  27. Hines Ward
  28. Santonio Holmes
  29. Kevin Walter
  30. Jerricho Cotchery
  31. Torry Holt
  32. Devin Hester
  33. Donald Driver
  34. Laveranues Coles
  35. Donnie Avery
  36. Lance Moore
  37. Derrick Mason
  38. Steve Breaston
  39. Patrick Crayton
  40. Josh Morgan

  Notes:

  • Up until the past week it was Marques Colston, but now Brandon Marshall seems to be the end of the clear No. 1 receivers this year. I didn't waver in sticking with Brandon Marshall as my No. 12 receiver, and with the drama in Mile High seemingly behind, he'll produce with Kyle Orton at quarterback. I grabbed him at 48th overall, or the last pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft several weeks ago, and any other owners should be rewarded well for grabbing him at a discount when he should be going in the middle of the third round.
  • After the Fantastic 4, there's a lot of debate about the next handful of guys. Why Greg Jennings? Good quarterback, two games against Detroit, few injury concerns, and an average of 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs over the past two seasons. As far as Boldin, how he falls out of anyone's top 10 at the position befuddles my mind. Sure, he misses games, but he also averaged the most fantasy points for all wide receivers per game. Plug in a replacement receiver for those games he misses, and the value you're getting is better, period.
  • Target Vincent Jackson as a No. 2 wide receiver this year and trust me on this one. If I didn't think that the Chargers planned on pounding the rock more this year he would probably see more production, but he's finally established himself as a legit No. 1 receiver. Of the guys ranked 14-16, I'm convinced Chad "don't call me Johnson" bounces back, but the upside on the next two are high, although with unparalleled risk. Jackson, like Derrick Mason in the later rounds, isn't as sexy, but safer.

Tight End

  1. Jason Witten (+)
  2. Antonio Gates
  3. Tony Gonzalez
  4. Dallas Clark
  5. Chris Cooley (+)
  6. Owen Daniels (+)
  7. Greg Olsen (+)
  8. Dustin Keller
  9. Zach Miller
  10. John Carlson
  11. Brent Celek (+)
  12. Kellen Winslow
Notes:
  • If I'm not taking Jason Witten, I'm not taking any of the top four guys. They're going much too high for the production you could be grabbing at the position. Gonzalez and Clark's touchdown numbers aren't much more predictable than the guys below them, which makes me weary of passing up a quality running back in those rounds where they're taken for one of them.
  • I'm not surprised if Cooley or Daniels is in the conversation with either of those guys above them next year, either. The yardage is there, people. Signs are pointing to these guys producing in a big way. In Washington, Moss will continue to get the long ball, but Cooley is the No. 1 red zone option through the air, much like Olsen. Daniels plays second fiddle to Andre Johnson in Texas, but there's going to be plenty of touchdowns to go around, and I'm betting he triples his touchdowns over the two he got solely against the Lions in 2008.

What about defense? The top options are pretty obvious this year with the Giants and Steelers. If you're not grabbing the best ones, I like the Jets, and I seem to be ending up with them a lot at the end of drafts. I play in several leagues where defense is weighted heavier, but in most leagues, don't reach, and by that I mean take two in the last few rounds. Chances are grabbing two with upside you're going to end up with a team that takes a step up, and you won't regret it when the guy with the Steelers defense is lacking depth later on.

Overall, I'm preaching two elite wide receivers this year, with solid depth to be found at running back, and even tight end. My magic number is now 22, as in 22 overall elite players that I want to grab before anyone else this year. That includes the killer B's at QB, the top nine backs, and the wide receivers down to Brandon Marshall. I don't advocate taking either Brady or Brees, though, until after around No. 18 overall; I think you're handicapping yourself at other positions otherwise.

With the busy schedules we have, not everyone has the time to pour over a full set of their own rankings with ample research. If you're still drafting, making trades, or preparing, hopefully this helps anyone make things easier.
Posted on: September 8, 2009 1:59 pm
Edited on: September 8, 2009 3:12 pm
 

Fantasy Draft: Round-by-round

Everyone should take advantage of mock drafts. They're what prepare a good fantasy player best for the real thing, whether you have ample rankings sitting in front of you or not.

So I'm here with a real draft, one that can serve as a mock for anyone else to see where players are landing. Is Brandon Marshall rising again? Is Derrick Ward falling? Well, here's an opportunity to take a gander.

I'll be updating during the draft as much as possible. 10-team league, 2 RB, 3 WR. I believe this means you need to grab wide receivers even higher than if your league uses 2 RB/2 WR/1 Flex, with a finite amount of top-tier receivers out there this year.

Enjoy.

Pre-Draft: I enter the draft room about 10 minutes early, and I've got the No. 6 overall pick. Not exactly where I want to be. Where's Al Davis to trade when I need him? If everyone takes guys according to my rankings, I land Steven Jackson there.

2:02, 1st Round: With the option of Chris Johnson or LT, I decide to Ride the Lightning and go with Tomlinson, who I have ranked No. 4 overall. A lot of Packers fans in this draft, and some cheesehead with the team name Rodgers Pack takes the Green Bay QB at the end of the first round. Hm.

2:05, 2nd Round:
Middle of the pack, I yank Megatron off the board with the 16th overall pick; he's the fourth overall receiver to go off the board. There's a few elite RB's still left, but you've gotta stick to your strategy at this point. Passing on the RB will pay off later.

2:14, 4th Round: A little delay, as I start scratching off guys on my rankings to keep better track. Going against my rankings, I take Marques Colston over Roddy White, who I have one spot higher. Hopefully not a regret I have later. In the fourth round, with the last of the No. 2 RB's that I want available, I go with Pierre Thomas over Kevin Smith, even with the knowledge he probably doesn't play in Week 1. With only two running back slots, you figure some good value will be available to plug in as a replacement.

2:18, 5th Round:
With no one left I really prefer on the board, I go with Braylon Edwards, with Berrian, Housh, and a few other guys out there. I have Edwards No. 15 overall at the position, but I worry about his production. Him holding onto balls is like Michael Jackson holding babies out a window. Sure, he probably won't drop them, but you can't help but wonder.

2:22, 6th Round: I make what might be my first mistake of the draft, going with Chris Cooley over Matt Schaub, who's promptly taken with the next pick. I was deciding between those two, and it always makes you second guess when that happens. Now my quarterback spot is a question mark, possibly.

2:26, 7th Round: Left out there in the rain like Owen Wilson in You, Me and Dupree is Donovan McNabb, who I thought was already picked. My QB problem is solved and my starting lineup almost totally filled out. Waiting on quarterback is always dicey. I'll probably pair him with a decent backup after about four more rounds, though.

2:37, 10th Round: Guys in the default rankings on this site are buried deeper than the national debt, leaving me to loose track of Devin Hester, although I pick the not-so-sexy Derrick Mason as my No. 5 WR. I grabbed Coles in the 8th Round, and Willie Parker in the 9th Round is a STEAL, 2 RB slots or not. The Matthew Barry man-crushes Visanthe Shancoe and Joe Flacco goe back-to-back in the 9th Round, earlier than I anticipated.

2:45, 13th Round:
Ray Rice, 11th Round. Steal of the draft. I pass up picking one of the better No. 1 D's left, or handcuff Sproles, to pick David Garrard. If anything happens to McNabb, he's an absolutely solid fill-in. With three picks to go, I select my first defense in the 13th, the Jets, who I've gotten now in nearly every draft. Rex Ryan, I'm a believer, baby.

2:55, 15th Round:
Draft is finished, and I close up shop with a Pats D and the ever-reliable Elam to seal the deal. Some quick notes otherwise:
  • Brandon Marshall - 39th overall
  • NYG Defense - 61st overall (First defense taken)
  • Eddie Royal - 65th overall
  • Marshawn Lynch - 79th overall
  • Willie Parker, Darren McFadden - 86th and 89th overall, respectively. Great value in 9th round.
  • Derrick Ward - 98th overall.
Picking Ward in one of my high-takes league with the 48th overall pick is making me queasy already, as he's been one of the biggest fallers. I'm counting on him in another league as a No. 2, if not a Flex-back.

A quick look at my team post-draft:

QB - Donovan McNabb
RB - LaDanian Tomlinson
RB - Pierre Thomas
WR - Calvin Johnson
WR - Marques Colston
WR - Braylon Edwards
TE - Chris Cooley
K - Jason Elam
DEF - New York Jets

Bench - QB - Garrard; RB - Rice, Parker; WR - Coles, Mason; Def. - New England

This is a team you put money on if you know you're going to come out of it looking like this. The only position I'm without a top option at is defense, but playing the matchups with 2 No. 1's is a good way to get good value in the earlier rounds. I have good depth or backups at every position in case of injuries as well.

Ideally, if you get to the point where you can nearly do a draft without your rankings, and it's all in your head, that's when you know you're a step ahead of the game. Provided those rankings you've lodged up there are superb like mine, that is.  Jokes aside, don't go into your draft looking like Lindsay Lohan at a movie shoot. Be prepared, through the myriad of avenues there is to do that. The information above can just be one of them.
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com